whiteflame

Just going to straight up rubber stamp everything Ragnar said above. I was dumb and kept forgetting that he hadn’t given away his full claim, hence I kept pointing to pseudo-CCs that weren’t there. That’s on me.

Like I said, I sus everyone at this point except REF. Some I obviously sus more than others

So with Ragnar’s full claim on the table, there are now three claimed JOATs and a confirmed one. At least one of us has to be telling the truth, and based on everything I know about both of them, they are.

Ragnar had no end of opportunities to kill Mharman if he chose. He knew exactly who Mharman would use his Doc on (him), and still the NK did not go through. Mharman was clearly a priority target for the NK, so he was likely right to protect himself. And as Ragnar surmised, I used my own protective role at the same time. It’s up to you whether you buy that story, but either Ragnar and I are both town or we’re both scum and this very elaborate story of NP2 actions is just made up entirely. Your choice on that front.

And speaking of other JOATs, one thing I haven’t mentioned yet is that Healer role Mharman had. He chose to use it NP3 on Rex, I imagine in part because he figured he’d be the target, but also because he knew town wasn’t using a role that would inflict an injury. The only one that could have? Earth’s PGO, which injures prior to killing. Maybe scum have access to a role that does something similar, but it’s striking that they haven’t employed it yet. Mharman’s role confirms the existence of some role that injures, and Earth’s PGO is the only one on the table.

I was always running under the assumption that there could be 2 scum and a TP who could joint win. Thats been the case since DP1

I got that, though I’m not functioning under that assumption. If it is true, though, that makes the fact that there wasn’t an NK NP2 all the more important. Scum wouldn’t have passed on an NP when that could have led to the end of the game right there, so something prevented it, whether that’s Casey’s action, Ragnar’s, Mharman’s or mine. At least two of those have to have been a factor.

I’m about to leave on my flight, so I don’t have time to respond to all of this at present. I’ll note, then, that I made a claim about what my role was that pseudo-CC’d David’s, then claimed as well that Luna had a role that I now have that pseudo-CC’s Casey, both claims I made after I’d been made aware of their claims and roles. If you want to believe that I’d do that and simultaneously be capable of maintaining discussion with five different people, none of whom have scumread me, then there’s nothing I could say that would convince you. If I’m in your POE at this point, then you should be mistrusting everything coming from my connections, which also means that you’re currently sussing, at minimum, Vader, Ragnar, Earth and me. And if you think I’m partnering with anyone but Ragnar, then you’d have to somehow believe I gaslit him into a strategy that prevented the NK NP2.

Also, since when are we at MYLO/LYLO? There are 7 players left. Wouldn’t that mean we’re assuming either three scum or two scum with a TP that would choose to win with scum?

Going to be on and off flights for the next 6-7 hours, but I’ll check in during my layover if I have time.

If he’s scum, then there are probably ways he can know. I acknowledge he’s in a pseudo-CC, but he’s in a pseudo-CC with the most townie player for me in REF. Between you and Casey there’s a pseudo-CC and between you and Vader there’s a pseudo-CC based on everything you’ve said.

My point was that there are multiple pseudo-CCs on the table. In fact, there’s a lot of odd with the roles that are out there, but I happen to know that several of them are real based on the flips and the specific info I have access to. I know there are numerous pseudo-CCs in play and, as I’ll get to in a bit, multiple town JOATs as well. That set me off when I learned of it, too, so I get why it would have you on edge, but if every individual pseudo-CC and instance of a JOAT is going to do that, then you are going to have way too many people to sus. At this point, that list would include at least four of the remaining players. But there’s a difference between having some pseudo-CCs where a single role in a JOAT aligns with another in a different JOAT and having a multi-use role be fill a very similar niche to multiple JOAT roles.

Fair enough, but it’s still awfully convenient, especially combined with everything you’ve said.

I don’t understand, what’s convenient here? That I had a townread on someone for other reasons than one element of their claim?

And yes, since David full claimed what he did, I’ll out my role:

I’m Mario. I am a JOAT. My roles are:

Super Mushroom: essentially an extra life, functions like a BP with me surviving an NK (used NP2).

Power Star: immune to night actions that are not the NK (still have this).

Fire Flower: this is the mafia-specific RB.

So why’d you say earlier that you didn’t know why he was flipless?

I didn’t want to reveal my hand last DP. I’ve been clear in this one that I know the reason. I was straight with both Ragnar and Mharman about it.

Not to mention it relies a massive part on if I believe you or not, which I frankly don’t at the moment.

Let’s tackle this now. If you think I’ve simultaneously manipulated at least four people (possibly five if you buy that no one who has claimed to Mason me is my scum partner) in different chats, I’m deeply flattered. That would be my best game of all time. If you think I would then try, with a tremendous amount of insight into every other player, to claim this specific role with more pseudo-CCs and a JOAT flipped already, that would certainly be a choice. Both would obviously be sussed, and it’s much harder to draw attention to other instances of them when I’m engaging in them myself. And the only person who could realistically be my scum partner would be Ragnar at this point, who I have openly stated I had plans with during the previous two NPs, essentially tying us together.

If you want to believe all of that is true, I don’t know what to tell you. It’s a mix of some incredible behavioral play across multiple Mason chats and some really strange choices that draw attention to me and the person you’d have to think is my partner for no reason.

Thinking about Casey from a 'Casey is scum perspective', why would she claim to be roleblocked if she was scum? Her claim seems crafted, if it is a fake claim, to explain away rolebocking visits as also having an additional fake 'protection' utility that would always appear to be real because scum would just NK someone else. Why claim she was roleblocked, which just raises additional suspicions? Why not just claim to be vanilla or something if you were going to do that?

Casey claiming they’ve been RB’d suggests the existence of a scum RB, which draws attention away from their own RB claim. If anything, it places suspicions elsewhere, not on Casey. A Vanilla claim would necessarily stand out here, and innocuous fake claims in general aren’t likely to fly, especially at this stage. Scum had to take chances. The risks are there whether you’re talking about Earth or Casey, but at least Earth has some corroboration of what he did and to whom.

Was info about Mharman's role known NP3? It seems like there was some kind of plan that multiple people knew about - if one person in that circle was scum then they might know that he had some manner of protective role. If they knew that and also knew that Mharman didn't know that they knew, then that would be the ideal time to NK him.

Assuming that’s true, you would also have to believe that the scum among us either chose not to use that information NP2 or was unable to use it. As far as I can tell, the latter requires you to believe Ragnar is scum and Casey is telling the truth (fair enough if you do, I guess), and the former requires you to believe that scum would actively choose not to put us in MYLO this DP despite the obvious opportunity to do so.

I don't really know Earth/Shining's level of acumen, having never played with him before, but if he is scum then he's on a team with other people who could have told him what to tell you regarding my night action and helped him to craft a fake claim. Maybe he's not up to the task of figuring it out himself as you seem to be implying (I personally don't know the guy), but if he had a competent scum team/partner he wouldn't need to.

Part of what I’m telling you is that, based on my direct experience with him in this game, I don’t think he’s pulling something like this off. I’ve been scum with him in several games before and I just don’t buy it here. I’ve seen people argue these kinds of big brain tactics were being used by scum only for their FoS to land on the wrong target too many times.

Just noticed you said Ragnar was null, that was my error. My point that there is likely at least one pseudo-CC in the game still stands, though. There are lots of claims with overlapping roles.

Since I’ve acknowledged the issues with his character and role claims, I’ll just address the rest of this.

It also seems bizarre to have a tracker and a 1x delayed tracker in the same game.

Ragnar and I have claimed two different versions of RBs and you have us both as town. I agree, there’s a lot of pseudo-CCs this game, but some of them have to be real.

Also seems bizarre to have a PGO and a Beloved Princess - seems absurdly swingy.

Doesnt seem like a strong case against him, seen plenty of swingy games with worse than that.

I'm also less convinced by his results on me. I said something in DP2 iirc that I now trust pie and that he's my top townread so I disclosed my role to him. Earth could have easily surmised from that post that I had an investigative role and had used it on Pie DP1 - plus I think that investigating your mason partner if you have an investigative role is kind of a no-brainer.

If Earth did rolecop me DP2 it would be even less of a huge stretch once he knew that I was a tracker to claim that he saw me visit Pie DP1.

At least from my interactions with him, I don’t buy that he big brained this and just figured you out. He seemed very set on Pie at first and changed his mind while we discussed it. I also think it was a massive risk to give me his result before even learning what your role was. I think you’re assuming a lot. I also think it’s doubly odd that, finding out that you were a Tracker NP2, he would then proceed or his scum partner to kill Mharman rather than kill the obvious investigative role.

This is going to likely just be a point of disagreement between us, but I think scumreading Earth on the basis that he could have faked his result doesn’t make as much sense as you appear to believe.

So you told Ragnar the entire plan? Who knew the plan in it’s entirety?

Mharman, Ragnar and me.

Here’s the issue I have with Earth. He soft claimed 1980s for his character. The Legend of Zelda 1986 is the only one that fits that. In that game though, there is no Lens of Truth or Master Sword. The link between Lens of Truth and Tracker doesn’t make sense nor does Master Sword and PGO. I’ve played OoT, MM, and WW. The claim doesn’t add up at all.

Doesn’t explain how he knew Rex’s NP1 night action and visited him the following night, by Rex’s own confirmation. I understand that the claim itself isn’t accurate to this specific game, and I was sussing him myself for his claim, but he’s also hardly alone in having a pseudo-CC on the table.

When did you find out his role?

Shortly after NP2 started.

Wait you absorbed Luna and he has a Roleblocker that exclusively worked on Mafia? That’s really really unusual. How did you townread Lunatic off of that?

I had enough basis for townreading him onto that point. The Mario claim and behavior were the biggest parts of that - played with him several times as scum and I saw no indication of anything after he recruited me. The claim of the RB was the only thing that made me second-guess what was still one of my stronger townreads at the time.

So Luna also had a protective role in addition to a roleblocker that only worked on scum? And you absorbed these roles. And you don’t know why Luna’s role is flipless? I’m having a heard time believing that. It all sounds like awfully convenient evidence against Casey. The only thing I can believe is that Mharman had a 1x Doctor. Which is yes a pseudo-CC of Casey’s role, but Earth also has that with REF

I absorbed his roles, yes. I had access to only those roles he had not used, so the RB was off the table by the time I got it.

I do know why he’s flipless: my role. I said I was surprised by it because the flipless aspect wasn’t described in my PM. I asked Mikal after the fact and it was confirmed that my role was responsible.

I don’t know why you’re talking about believing Mharman’s role. We have his flip. He had a 1X Doc, plus a 1X Healer, though we still don’t know what that applies to. And, again, that’s pseudo-CC on two different fronts: protective and role blocking. Unless you believe both Ragnar and I are faking our roles, both apply to Casey’s claim.

What reason do you have to back Ragnar’s view of events?

I’ve already stated why in large part in my reasons for townreading Ragnar, which are all reasons for me to back his view. Aspects of Casey’s story don’t line up with what I’m hearing from Ragnar either, though I’ll have to come back to that later. I would like to understand why you’re townreading Casey.

Alright, so I’ll start from the bottom and work my way up.

Ragnar: He was made pretty thoroughly aware of plans that Mharman and I put together to manage the two back-to-back NPs, placing him or his partner in a uniquely advantaged position to execute an NK with little effort. Considering that could have put us at MYLO, I don’t think he’d pass that up. Aside from that, the Lightning Rod is a very odd choice for scum, since it’s easily disprovable based on literally anything hitting his target and not him.

Rex - those results track well with what I know of both Mharman’s night actions and Earth’s. There’s an outside chance that he has scum roles that he could use for Tracking, but this amount and this accurately stated doesn’t make much sense from a scum perspective.

Earth - similar reasons to Rex, though a one-time use just isn’t as foolproof. Rex confirmed what he did as well. The pseudo-CC bothers me, but not enough to shift my read substantially.

Pie - role confirmed, largely townread behaviorally, and Rex getting a result on him consistent with his. Pie’s been at an interesting crossroads with him being the sole contact at night with Rex, and I have little reason to disbelieve him, but it’s the least confirmation of anyone I’ve already listed.

Vader - if we’re being honest, I don’t think Vader or Casey is more scummy. They equally stand out. I’ll just claim for him since Vader’s taking so long: he claimed Space Invaders and 1X Absorber. So many issues:

1. it’s a pseudo-CC of my role
2. he didn’t seem to understand how the role worked when I questioned him, saying he could be given a Vig shot, which did not make sense. The role absorbs non-killing roles used on it.
3. Vader getting Space Invaders? Really?
4. the justification is entirely unclear. He mentioned something about a Fragment Shield generator and, despite my best efforts, I haven’t found any information on what that is let alone how it works. Asked two days ago, haven’t heard anything since.

Casey - Casey’s main problem is just how many pseudo-CCs there are, and here’s where I’ll out a bit of information: when I absorbed Luna, he had already used an RB role, one that would solely have worked on scum (yes, I’m aware that Ragnar is also a pseudo-CC on that). That plus the existence of a Doctor (Mharman’s role) and a protective role from Luna (I’ll provide specifics later) means that Casey’s Alien role is pseudo-CC’d twice, both as an RB and as a protective role.

I also haven’t liked either of their behaviors. I have reason to back Ragnar’s view of events between him and Casey, and Vader just vanished after some pretty weak attention to the DP and some defense of Casey, which stood out to me.

I can give details on the why a bit later, but my list would be (from most scummy to least)

1. Casey
2. Vader
3. Pie
4. Earth
5. Rex
6. Ragnar
7. Whiteflame

Hmm, that’s a borderline CC of REF’s claim.

I flagged that too, though a) he knew that Rex had visited you NP1 and told me so before Rex posted what he did, b) Rex tracked Earth to himself NP2, which is consistent with his stated action. All this would look a lot more convenient if not for the Mason chat.

The PGO is also interesting. What’s the reason you didn’t use it NP1 or NP3?

I’ll leave it to him to explain NP1, but both Mharman and I agreed he should not use it NP3. Too much risk of another resulting death since we didn’t know what Rex would do.

So you’re confident that the flipless isn’t part of his role or that maybe he just hid it from you?

I received a PM detailing his role as well as a short video showing Kirby absorbing Mario. If he’s flipless as a result of his role, then Mikal is hiding elements of his role from me, not Luna.

So neither of them have revealed their character and role to you?

They both have. I know everyone’s character and role claims at this stage. Vader has not revealed his night action. That’s what I’m seeking.

To be clear, I have very good reason to buy Earth’s claim at this point. I have good reason to buy Ragnar’s as well. We can discuss them later in more detail.

So you townread Lunatic based on his character & role? And that’s why you selected him?

Yes to both.

Still doesn’t explain the lack of flip though. Having a Janitor in this set up is super weak, and I presume Luna didn’t say anything about his role being able to flip.

His being flipless is not at all associated with his role, I can confirm that. As for why my role removes the flip, I couldn’t say, but that’s what it did. I’ll take it since it means scum don’t know about my role now.

Is there a reason you want Vader & Earth to claim before you do?

Vader in particular, actually. I don’t mind claiming after he does, but he’s been radio silent in our chat for 2 days and hasn’t confirmed any night actions. I think he should be the priority claim at this point, especially since I’m apparently the only one who knows his character and role. That should be public information up for discussion at this point.

That’s definitely interesting. I guess I’m still confused though. You said your role absorbs the role of a dead player but Mikal allowed you to choose a living player (Lunatic). Why did you choose Lunatic?

One of my early questions for Mikal was whether I could select a living player and absorb their abilities if they died that night. He indicated that he’d let it go through if I selected correctly.

My other choice NP1 was Icon. I didn’t know his role at the time, but if he was TP, I couldn’t have absorbed him and every indication I got was that his role wasn’t exactly powerful. So he wasn’t a viable target. At that point, it was mainly a question of waiving or trying to find the NK target.

As for why Luna, two reasons. One, he wasn’t pretty widely townread going into NP1, so that made him a likely target. Two, I was already in a PM with him and he had told me his character and role. I knew it was valuable to keep around, so I chose him.

So you targeting him made his role flipless? Can’t say I’ve ever seen this role before. What’s the justification?

Aside from saying that Kirby is adaptable and the description of the role (absorb a dead player, get their role), there isn’t one. The role does not state anything about removing or preventing a flip from being visible, either. That was a surprise.

As I said, I’m aware of everyone else’s claims already, but I’d like to get them all out on the table for everyone to see, hence the tags on this post. If you haven’t full claimed yet, now’s the time. That includes night actions where applicable.

I know who I’m sussing based on claims and night actions, but I do want this done in a specific order. Casey should claim first, then Vader, then Shining.

Given what I know about everyone’s night actions, that all tracks (pun intended). Figured it was a given you were an investigative role, but I wanted your results regardless, just a shame that you chose Earth and Mharman in particular, both of whom I have/had good reason to townread.

Anyway, I’ll out: my role absorbs the PRs of my dead target. I asked if I was allowed to target someone who was alive and absorb them if they die. Turns out, I can. I targeted Luna NP1 and lucked out, so I’m the reason he’s flipless.

His character was Mario. I’m willing to out specific roles if necessary, but that seems like enough for now. I’m going to need good reason to out fully at this stage.

I’m fine full claiming, but I’d like Rex to out first. I’ve got everyone else’s claims at this point, so if they don’t provide them, I can.

So yeah, Mharman’s dead. I’m pretty sure his role was responsible for preventing the NK NP2, so props to him for picking the right target. Has anyone been “injured” by a role? He mentioned he had the ability to heal an injury, but neither he nor I knew what that would even look like.

If anyone has results, now is the time to provide them.

In case that vote wasn’t enough (on my phone and don’t want to check back):

VTL RT

Well, was planning on hammering anyway. If we lose the DP, this is going to get rough, but I think it’s a risk we have to take.

I can confirm I did receive Casey’s character and role via Ragnar. I’ll leave off at that with Casey for this DP.

Unvote

I’m willing to wait for the game of telephone to play out if necessary. I would still prefer at least to get a partial claim from Casey as opposed to just executing the lynch on RT now. That being said, I’m not going to wait long before shifting my vote. The lynch on RT still makes the most sense from where I’m sitting. We don’t have long left (I think about 3 hours from my count), and I am paying attention to the time.

I’m fine seeking the claim, but if there’s a reason to defend Casey, Pie should be helping to inform it since he’s the only one in chat with Casey as far as we know.

Unvote

VTL Casey

I’ve stated some hesitancy with going ahead on this, but realistically, this is a lynch that will happen at some point and we can risk the loss. It doesn’t seem like we’ll coalesce around another target before time runs out, and I honestly don’t see a good reason to choose someone else anyway. So at least for now, this is where my vote is going:

VTL RT

We have about 9 hours left, so we’ve got to start discussing this seriously at this point.

I’m partially relying on Pie’s perception of Rex since he’s in the Miller chat with him, as well as some pretty solid analysis from Rex as a basis for townreading him behaviorally. I can’t leave aside the possibility that he and Pie are a scum team, but that’s not where I’m leaning currently.

Does anyone aside from RT have a reason for pushing Rex at this point? And if we don’t have one, what aside from the potential that he is the Beloved Princess is holding everyone back from pursuing the RT lynch?

jesus i can’t get past 1700

3500 was my max. I can see getting that much, but we’re talking hours of play in that game alone.