Mestari

Say the scum team is Banana and Kohai. They have a discussion about which of them Pie is gonna jailkeep this time, but it's a total tossup, could be either. So they can't just send the one less likely to be jailkept to do the NK and use their Redirector on me. They're forced to use it on Pie.

Why they didn't just redirect Pie onto me is another question. Probably guessed awesome was actually in the guild.

This is a very good question. Possibly because they figured your results would be messed up again. Possibly because they don't know what Magic's role is and want to account for uncertainty. Also possibly because they want to keep you in the PoE.

Reads on Banana and Kohai's behavior this DP would be wunderbar.

Key posts you may have missed: #149, #272, #329

WRT #149, I'm not sure what you are looking for from me. It confirms banana isn't the redirector mechanically. In a way it suggests we should lynch other members of the PoE before banana because if someone else flips mafia but isn't a redirector, it townlocks her, but none of this is behavioral.

#272 I still don't know what you are asking me to look at. I already knew all this. Like I said, I asked Mikal about these interactions days ago.

#329 Still not sure what you are asking me to look at.

Already discussed. Mag1c was roleblocked last night. The going theory is Pie got redirected when he tried to jailkeep Banana again. If that's true, neither awesome or me could have been redirected.

See #335.

Okay yeah that would lock both as town or both as mafia. Given that I'm strongly town on Awesome, that confirms Rex for me

Who are your top 3 scum reads and why?

Banana, Kohai, and Whiteflame. This is because everyone else is pretty much confirmed to be down at this point.

There's still a world where Rex is scum, but I think mechanically Awesome has to be town

Just got off work. Tomorrow morning I'll finish my reread before I go into work. Any particular questions anyone wants to throw at me or anything they want me to look at in particular?

If Rex is lying then he's scum and awesome's Strengthener should've shown me a guilty result.

Again, either they're both innocent or the team is precisely awesome/Rex. So if you think the team is awesome/Rex why are you exploring other pairings?

There's the case that only one is mafia if either you or awesome got redirected.

I would love to dig into some behavioral reads, but on 5 hours of sleep I'm just staring at words on a page. I'd like to finish rereading the game tomorrow morning if the DP isn't rushed to a finish before then.

That is to say, the Ant King is among players who were either active or at least available to present the challenge around when the DP went up

DP3 went up at 6:49pm. The challenge from the ant king didn't come until 7:14pm. This leads me to conclude that the Ant King had some autonomy over when the challenge was issued.

Would like more discussion from yall

Me too. DP went up during a 15 hour shift and I'm about to go into another one. Best your gonna get is my bus ride you work, about an hour in the middle of the day, and tomorrow morning.

Have we confirmed if a player would be told if they were redirected at night?

The only thing that has me hesitant on banana/Kohai is that I don't think scum was only given one fake claim and SJW's sister is a horrible fake claim for reasons I mentioned before. That being said, Mikal has also given players horrible real claims.

I'm off work. Catching up now.

I'll think more on this after work.

I'm talking D1 when you had 3 players on you, 2 of which are confirmed town at this point and 1 is presumably town.

Eh, I know why I have a hard on. Because I don't want to have been wrong about banana being town..ego, lol

That's a plus for Whiteflame. It's probably Kohai + Banana tbh. IDK why I have a hard-on for Whiteflame. Neither Thoth nor Alyssa jumping to the Kohai wagon is pretty damning.

Any last questions for me before I clock in?

Yes, which is why he posted the quotes that SJW says

Based on your interpretation of the conversation, do you feel he was baiting one of you into taking bullet by challenging the king?

I don’t think you’re getting me.

Without a Strengthener, there’s a 50/50 shot you get an inno on REF right?

Supposedly with strengthening it’s 100% shot you get an inno on him, assuming he’s town

Did you ask how Godfather or Lawyer would interact?

I asked these questions days ago. Strengthener would negate those roles.

Could be possible. Again, you're last in the PoE, I just have to accept that you're in it.

What do you imagine isn't computing?

Like at some point you have to drop the fancy play and play for immediate advancement if the wincon

I don't imagine in the panic of what mafia's DP1 was they would have assumed their poison could be fucked too. You raise a valid point, but why not poison literally any town and advance their wincon while so far behind

For what it's worth my PoE is Whiteflame, Banana, Kohai at this point. I don't think SJW is scum, but I do think it's a possible fake claim. I reckon it's Whiteflame + Kohai, but Banana is obviously the lynch first.

Whiteflame

Banana

MagicMan

Can you remind me of your read on Magic? Do you believe that Mafia waived poison NP1 after having 1 Mafia lynched that day and another on the block?

My ride to work will be here soon. I will have limited availability for the next hour.

Mikal told me that it would override cop natures, such as paranoid or naive. He explained it as guaranteeing success, and clarified that there are game conditions (which we now know to be guild alignment) they could effect the results beyond that. I further asked how this would effect investigating godfather or a person who randomizes results and he said strengthening takes prio.

And Whiteflame, I think it's worth considering whether it really makes sense to secure the kill on 2 mafia DP1 to power myself up, especially given that the power up is tied to the queen in particular dying. At the end of the day, the tell I caught was real, it implicated more than one scum, and it's unlikely anyone else was going to find it, so you need a really strong case to argue that it was in s!Mestari's best interest to open the game killing half of his team.

I'm about to head out now. Something I would like help looking into while I'm at work... If Rex is town then there was no mole. If there was no mole, there is less reason for mafia to have framed Pie. I think it's worth looking into DP3 in particular with the stances people took WRT the guilty and the mole.