DebateCraft

Ranger’s Apprentice Mafia DP4

Lunatic · a year ago

Well... that's frustrating. That claim that Thoth saw a self-visit from Mharman absolutely should have given him away. There's no world in which that happens or someone fakes him seeing that. Wryly was spot-on with that analysis.

I don't understand that logic, It was discussed numerous times that self visiting roles are often scummy. Pie said the same thing so I assume your parroting that from him.

But I don't know how pie would or wouldnt have processed that.

Ranger’s Apprentice Mafia DP4

Lunatic · a year ago

I am voting wryly here. I will provide reasons both mechanically and behaviorally for why I am doing this.

Mechanically:

1- One of the main reasons I lynched mharman was because of the self visit thoth had on him from np1. The only way magic could explain that away was with some bull sh1t mirror maker role. On top of that, his plan was to wryly, and at this point magic had to have known he was pretty screwed. Best case scenario if we somehow believe him, lynch wryly and she's scum, he gets town cred riding into lylo. Worst case scenario he gets lynched, and wryly gets town cred going into lylo. Rex saved the day by visiting me last day phase, because I would have been a game winning mislynch target otherwise. Okay so "what if thoth and mharman were sum"? What would have been the game plan? To bus mharman early? Why? When he revealed the results on mharman there was no reason to do this. Also a self visit, while incriminating isn't necessarily grounds to prove a "bus". The amount of psychology involved here to substantiate a some scum ploy at work here is beyond imagining for me.

2- Night actions don't make sense. Even if we give wryly noob passes for np1 and 2, np3 literally makes no sense mechanically. If she protected Rex, why is he dead? Even if he targeted scum (which he couldn't have because he was 2x, unless he lied about one of his earlier visits and forfeited instead) the doctor protect should have saved him. The strong man is dead. So the only explanation for why her doctor save didn't go through is if she was roleblocked. But she claims she didn't receive any message indicating her action didn't go through. I asked pie if a person with a visiting role would receive a message telling them they were roleblocked or not, and he said he could answer that since a roleblocker was already flipped, and he said yes he would. So I don't see any other explanation for why rex would be dead other than she was lying. Also why would she have targeted rex? There is actually a lot of good reason to have targeted rex, but not from a new players POV. If she thought I was town confirmed like she said she did last phase, she should have known I was a likely target, and I think would normally have protected me if she were actually town. I knew that rex would die though, because mharman was smart enough to have directed that, knowing that if I die, it confirms my results and proves rex is town. Rex has the ability to prevent a kill which can confirm him especially with a town doctor alive (if she was actually a town doctor). To shut that narrative down scum would have HAD to have killed rex, and I think mharman is one of the few people alive that is smart enough to have pieced that together. It explains the doctor protection though.

3- Finally Balance. Balance with a tracker makes far more sense than balance with a doctor. Dreamer is an incredibly powerful role, however pie put a ton of counter measures to it in this game. A hider, roleblocker, and a ascetizer all serve as potential counters to me getting results. In fact it was incredibly lucky I wasn't visited np1 to even get the results. Given that outside of me, town has virtually no investigative ability, it makes sense to have at least one more. Tracker atually makes sense here. Doctor? Not so much. A hider is already protective in that they can't be targeted, and both the ascetizer and roleblocker have potential to interupt the night kill. A doctor on top of all that seems OP. Not to mentioned I researched a bunch of pie's games. He RARELY uses doctors ever.

Let's take a look at his last 8 games or so.

COD mafia: Escape artist as towns only protection role.

Inheritance: Prideful townie as towns only protection role.

Indian mafia: No doctor, the closest thing to a protection role was an ascetic.

Heroic Heroes: Brave Townie, and Reflector only protection roles.

Recycled Roles: Finally a game with a doctor, but its a recycled role from a narcos game from years ago.

Mahabarata: Apportioner as only protection role.

Heroes of Olympus: Whiteflame was an inventor with a 1x doctor ability, but this was virtually it.

I stopped researching games at this point. In 8 games in the past 2 years, I found only one everynight doctor. Case in point, pie rarely uses straight up doctors, and prefers off kilter type of protection roles. If he happened to use a doctor here, that is an incredible coincidence.

Behaviorally:

1- Most of thoth's behavior has been relatively similar to his other town games. But the major point I want to touch on here is how increbily pro-town his lynching behavior is. If mafia is going to stay away from mislynches, the only reason to do so would be to use it for town cred. Thoth has been on exactly 0 mislynches, and has never once tried taking credit for that. In fact when I gave him town cred in dp2 for it, he tried denying the town cred by explaining he wasn't around to vote! So as scum, what is the reason for him abstaining from relatively easy mislynches like casey and mikal? He never brought up one time that this is a reason to town confirm him, not even here at lylo. This is one of the strongest reasons I have town read thoth, but ultimately its just how careful hes being. Even last day phase when it was clear mharman was cooked, he was being conservative, where wryly immediately jumped on that wagon for the town cred, and immediately tried using it as an argument for herself at the beginning of this day phase. Hell, thoth was so conservative he didn't even want to vote and missed the fact that I was town confirmed because I hadn't quick hammered him yet, where wryly was very quick to point that out. This is such an innocent little town slip its very hard for me to ignore, but ultimately shows how passive and careful he is being because he doesn't want to mess town up.

If I am wrong here, then thoth deserves to win because it shows levels of manipulation from him that I wasn't able to comprehend him being capable of, and a bussing strategy with mharman that required so much internal mindfvcking, that I would consider only a hardened mafia vet capable of.

Thoth if you were scum, this was extremely well played and I will never look at you the same again. But Ultimately, if it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, and moves like a duck, its probably just a duck.

VTL wryly.