Thoth

proof that scum killed Shining* not Mikal

Some thoughts to start the day that I spent the last half an hour or so writing. Then I refreshed the thread, saw where discussion had gone, and felt the need to get that bit about Wylted out

When I said in DP1 (post #544) that Mikal needed to be on the block in DP2 unless we had solid mechanical evidence that he is town, I had a scenario in mind for NP1 in which my role would prove Mikal town beyond a reasonable doubt. This scenario happened, and I consider him cleared unless and until something absolutely scumlocks him. My sphygmomanometer thanks me. However, since I can't prove my result and don't want to claim my ability because good reasons, for town's sake I would still like indepedent corroboration of Mikal being clear, and I specified mechanical evidence yesterday in hopes that someone else would try to get some.

If Mikal is town, which I am almost certain he is, the safe option for scum last night was killing him. I have proof that scum killed him. With one death overnight and recruiting likely requiring mafia to waive their night-kill, thankfully, Mikal probably was not recruited. However, since Shining was an unknown quantity and probably winning King of the Hill on most people's scum piles, he makes a strange target. Shining was presumably Janitored, so scum can now fake-claim the role they scrubbed, on top of whatever fake-claim(s) Rex might have given them. Call that a No Shit Analysis if you want, but we should keep it in mind. This should also put the final nail in the coffin of the cult theory, on the off chance anyone was still thinking that.

The only characters mentioned by name in role flips, aside from the characters themselves, are Emperor Barbarossa and Mathiu in Magic's flip, and the way they are mentioned makes me think they are probably both in here. Aside from Barbarossa being the ultimate Scarlet-lock, I would like Mikal's thoughts about what their presence implies about the town/scum split. I would also like Mikal's thoughts on what an ability being called a True Rune could mean. Obviously, if Mikal thinks this information should kept secret, then I would rather he keeps his thoughts to himself.

Can you at least clarify post #78

In this case, I actually can't because I don't remember what I was talking about there.

Can you clarify how you know this.

I can, but can and should are two very different things.

But he already did claim. Again, I was in panic mode and did not catch up with the thread.

Is this a confession or are you claiming info on the real killer?

Sorry for the rushed presentation. I have proof that Shining was the night kill. I saw people were going after Wylted and wanted to get that out ASAP in hopes of stopping something bad, e.g., a needless claim, from pressure on Wylted. If Wylted did kill Shining, then he did so with the night-kill, not by the poison ability he is claiming.

Wylted did not kill Shining.

Y'know, by asking everyone to name their top scumread, I presumably affected their read of me. Measuring the system changes it. Good ol' Heisenberg uncertainty principle is inescapable even in social deduction games.

I'd like it if everyone could name their top scumread.

(assuming cult means exactly what I think it does)

There's a reason why I knew from the get-go that scum were mafia rather than cult, and it was not just the OP: "Mafia are provided with some information on fake claims."

(None of you say what you're tempted to. Don't you dare.)

If .....

Nah, not typing that thought out. No reason to give scum information to work with for no apparent benefit, but damn that was tempting.

Correct me if I am forgetting evidence to the contrary, but, if Mikal is scum, it is possible that he figured out all of the important thematic splits immediately except who he could recruit, and his efforts to solve the game were meant to narrow that down.

The more I see Mikal leading the charge under the banner of lorelordship, the more I am swayed towards townreading him, but what bothers me despite everything else is his claim of knowing who scum can recruit, as seen in, for instance, post #424:

the catch is there is a good number of people who can’t be recruited. There are some who can

there are very specific things in game that directly dictate this and scum won’t be able to find it by googling it. Skep could have told them or they would have had to have played the game

I wouldn't bet real money that Mikal is lying here, but this assertion also fails the sniff test at multiple olfactory receptors. If the theme split is just Scarlet versus Toran with time being the only unsolved variable, why would this information be un-Googleable? I doubt that deep lore knowledge is needed to cross-reference a list of characters with a timeline of when they joined Toran. Whether or not this list is un-Googleable, saying that there are "very specific things" without specifying them sprinkles FUD over town like a chemtrail, and at little risk since nobody else knows enough lore to question it.

Since it's very possible that Mikal really is town and knows the recruitability split, I'm not asking anyone to delve into what that split is, but the assertion strikes me as scummy, however tunnelly I'm being.

If you are town, Mikal, hey, glad you're on our side, but your efforts to out information combined with your unique position to leverage that information tell me that you need to be on the block tomorrow unless we have solid mechanical evidence that you are town.

I'm not dropping the hammer yet in case someone has something to add but has not gotten on to do it yet. Has there been a single post from Ultra?

I agree that whiteflame has to be today's lynch short of a scumlock. We have no confirmed scum and bringing a third-party along is too dangerous.

they are the 2 that stick out to me but the level of scummy the above post is , is pretty glaring

A-fucking-hem? If you think that I am scum with a recruitment mechanic that only works on characters who join the rebellion, and that post #307 was a sugar-coated ploy to narrow my recruitment pool, I am insulted by the suggestion that I could or would commit such a preposterous scumslip. Before you reply that this would also be an egregious oversight as town since a scum recruitment mechanic is practically confirmed, I am under the impression that many characters in Suikoden 1 who start as loyal to the Emperor have joined the rebellion by the end and many others have not, which, if true, means that knowing someone's alignment trajectory certainly could not winnow their possible characters to an individual and probably could not winnow them enough to activate any anti-claim mechanics. It also struck me as notable and unexpected that my character ends up as a prominent figure in the Toran rebellion. This is all notwithstanding that your hesitance to reveal which characters you think scum can recruit, as in post #58 and possibly elsewhere, implies that you think the recruitability split is more complicated than whether or not they Toranned against the Empire.

Nani? I thought I was helping a hypothetical townie you figure out the theme split. Scum-Mikal is unlikely to benefit from anyone's answers.

Anyone else want to claim that their character started Suikoden 1 as loyal to the Empire and joined the rebellion later? Hence why I agree with Mikal's supposition that roles, or at least alignment, are cross-sectioned from the beginning of Suikoden 1.

I have a quick hypothetical question for everyone.

If Mikal somehow dies in this day/night cycle and we learn at the dawn of DP2 that he is scum, how badly are we going to be regretting sharing the information that we did, especially given that he can give advice to his scummate(s) after he dies if post-death scum chat works like in Ranger's Apprentice, which I bet it does?

Just something to consider.

Why would you put this thought in my head

Matthew 7:6

I would like whiteflame to give a rough indication of what usefulness he can prove. If not now, then at least a little while before he full-claims.

I can imagine that whiteflame genuinely scumslipped and then claimed Yuber thinking that a third-party claim could keep him alive, at least for a bit, and this would be better than no damage control. Mikal's stated belief in wf's claim makes me think that wf did not come up with it, no offense. Modpsychers unite: Can you imagine Rex giving scum a third-party as a fake-claim?

I've given as much info as was presented in my PM about my character in post #219.

I have been a good influence on you.

Whiteflame, I'd like more information about what you mean by member of the New State Army, as much as you can give me without toeing the line of copy-pasting your PM.

Maybe whiteflame and/or Rex poorly worded the fact that their character is loyal to the Empire now, i.e., at the cross-section in time our roles are based off of, and his membership in the New State Army is "current" as of the most recent canon. How far does the canon Suikoden timeline extend?

I am Scarlet.

I still am not comfortable with Mikal, but there should be no harm in claiming Scarlet since every other claim so far has been Scarlet, although that's what scum would do.

But there is very likely a hidden aspect that recruit that mafia don’t even know and it’s glaring obvious if you beat the game

I know exactly who scum can recruit cus endgame but I really doubt scum know that

Did you read these sentences to yourself before clicking "Post comment"? Now scum can punch in something like, "suikoden ps1 ending", on YouTube and get information that could win them the game. Way to monopolize your lorelordship.

Mikal said something interesting that I just now picked up on after browsing that Gensopedia that Magic linked. I'll stay quiet lest scum pick it up and it is somehow useful for them. Just thought I should leave a note here.

I have a hard time seeing scum mikal just openly disclosing his thoughts on the theme split like that.

If Mikal is scum and the theme split is actually Empire = Town / Toran = Scum, he surely guessed the split quickly even if Rex did not tell him, and he also would have known that this split is obvious enough that we probably would have figured it out without guidance from a lore god, so why not disclose it? If Mikal is scum and the split is different, then we are entering the zone of blind speculation, where I prefer to keep my extremities within the vehicle at all times, especially when I know jack shit about Suikoden beyond what I've read in this thread, but I would bet said extremities that there could be a metric fuckton of obscure splits in which scum-Mikal could fake-claim the obvious split and spin it to self-townlock and bait claims. Frankly, and I don't mean to insult Rex if the split is simply Empire / Toran, I would be miffed at it being so simple, but I would wonder if he intentionally left us the opportunity to overthink it.

He could be scum trying to throw us off, sure, but since he guessed the split in like post 11 multiple people have confirmed being in a similar category. His only motivation for doing that would be for town cred I suppose, and since this game has recruit mechanics I guess he could be doing that knowing that giving the theme split doesn't matter, but still feels like a bit of a stretch to me.

A hypothetical Airmax scummated with Mikal would be suicidal to claim that justification if the split were not Empire / Toran, which nearly proves that the split is Empire / Toran or that Mikal is town, possibly both. With Mikal, Kohai, Airmax, Wryly, and possibly Magic claiming Imperial characters, it is effectively public knowledge that there is at least one Imperial townie because four scum in a 13-player game is unthinkable. Five is right out. I'm thinking that the split is Empire / Toran with some additional layer that we will have to figure out as the veils are parted. I say 'we' because, if Mikal is town, scum are not letting him see another day.

How Many Times Do We Have To Teach You This Lesson Old Man?

Re: Post #70 - I missed the reason you gave for why Georg was not in that list. Sorry.

I know nothing about this game. I was neck deep in Legend of Dragoon around that time I think. I'd like to take this time to say I'm a total scum noob and anyone who recruits me is shooting themselves in the foot fuck off don't pick me bitch I will cut you

(Post #38) I was neck deep in my mother's womb.